Monday, December 1, 2014

Some thoughts on the UF coaching search...

First, my disclaimer. No inside information here. Just trying to read between the lines...

The names and rumors are flying hot and heavy for the vacant Florida head coaching position now that the majority of teams in college football have seen their regular seasons come to an end.

Since Saturday night, we've seen four names get dropped as "leading" contenders for the job: Doc Holliday (several sources, most notably a now-deleted tweet by Only Gators Get Out Alive), Hugh Freeze (first in a report by SI's Pete Thamel on Saturday night, followed by report from SB Nation's Steven Godfrey that UF had extended Freeze an offer), Jim McElwain (a report by Yahoo's Pat Forde which included a nugget that McElwain and Foley spoke via phone on Saturday evening) and Josh McDaniels (based on reporting by Football Scoop on Monday morning).

The takeaways from all the early conjecture?

1. I do not believe that Hugh Freeze has an offer in hand from the Gators, as it seems Foley is still in the process of "vetting out" his candidates (a term used directly in the Football Scoop report). I would not, however, be surprised if Freeze was the early or current favorite in the eyes of the UF search committee.

2. Jimmy Sexton strikes again. There could be portions of the SB Nation report which are accurate (I hate to seemingly throw Godfrey under the bus, as Sexton would be a legitimate source if that's where the information came from. But you must always be wary of agents ...). For instance, could Foley have already spoken with Freeze or an intermediary? Quite possibly. Could Foley have thrown out a figure like "$4.2-4.3 million" as the number UF was looking to spend on the upper end? Wouldn't surprise me. Could Freeze now be "mulling" the possibility of taking an offer from UF if it comes? Certainly within the realm of possibility. But the only thing I Would read from the Freeze reports at this moment, is that he's poised to make quite a bit more money next year, regardless of where he's coaching.

3. There seem to be some similar general characteristics developing from the names which are jumping out early on. Head coaching experience is a must (all four names fall under that group). SEC experience is highly preferred (Holliday, McElwain and Freeze have that, McDaniels does not). An offensive background is a major plus (all but Holliday fall into that category). And age may not be as much as a factor as it has been in previous UF searches for head coaches -- McElwain is 52 and Holliday is 57, while McDaniels (38) and Freeze (45) seem to fit the more typical profile of a Foley hire.

4. Once again, I have to wonder how McElwain's buyout will figure into the picture if he were to become one of the last finalists the job. A $7.5 million buyout at Colorado State, on top of the ~$8 million or so (a number that will certainly figure to go down as Muschamp staff members get jobs elsewhere) that Florida already has committed to the outgoing staff. That's somewhere in the neighborhood of $14-$15 million BEFORE paying for a new staff. McElwain has done a good job at Colorado State, but I don't know if he's worth the financial commitment Florida will have to make to bring him to Gainesville.

5. Josh McDaniels is a bright, young offensive mind who deserves another crack at a big job down the line. But is UF the right fit for him? He is the son of a coach, and already has over 15 years of experience at the ripe old age of 38. However, he has only spent two years at the collegiate level (as a graduate assistant under Nick Saban and Bobby Williams at Michigan State from 1999-2000). No real recruiting experience, and he's going to get thrown into the gauntlet that is the SEC? Not a good combo. Hiring McDaniels would require a strong staff of recruiters (read: expensive group of assistants) around him.

So, that's what we have so far. I do believe there is some legitimacy to all four of the above-listed names being in the mix for the UF job. We know from past experience that Foley wanted 15 names as candidates for the job when he went through the search that led to Urban Meyer's hiring in 2004. We also know that Foley can throw us a real curveball, as he did with Will Muschamp in 2010. So, the biggest takeaway from everything right now ... until the Gators actually make a hire, there's a LONG ways to go in this coaching search.

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