Recruiting Roundup: The LSU meltdown edition

If you come across an LSU fan today who happens to follow recruiting – even just in passing – give him/her a hug. They're going to need it.

You see it? ROLL DAMN TIDE!!! Get with it or get rolled over 🐘🔴⚪ http://t.co/ipibrYnXrX
— Cameron D. Robinson (@crobinson_68) September 4, 2013

Cameron Robinson, a 6-foot-5, 330-pound offensive lineman out of West Monroe, La. is heading to Alabama, and this is a decision that most certainly moves the needle in recruiting circles.

A picture of Les Miles in his office

from earlier this afternoon.

Ranked by numerous recruiting services/lists as the top offensive line prospect in the country, and by 247Sports as the top overall prospect in the country, Robinson was a must-get prospect for Les Miles and LSU.

Ever since Nick Saban arrived as the new sheriff in Baton Rouge back in 2000, the Tigers have been able to close off the borders in talent-rich Louisiana to outside poachers. Florida, Miami, Michigan and Tennessee, among others, were able to come in and win big-time recruiting battles throughout the 90's, but Saban put an end to that. And for the most part, Les Miles has been able to accomplish the same since taking over for Saban after the 2005 season.

But Saban's ties in Louisiana run deep, and he was able to pull off a huge coup in Robinson. Louisiana is traditionally strong in terms of talent, but this year is simply on another level. 10 in-state prospects are considered to be among the nation's top 100 seniors. An additional five more are slotted to be among the nation's top 250. If the Bayou Bengals could just hold serve at home, they would reel in the nation's top class going away, and arguably one of the best of all-time.

That's not happening at the moment, however.

The first defection came from wide receiver Cameron Sims of Ouachita Parish. The 6-foot-3, 200-pounder was the only prospect among the state's top 15 who didn't claim an offer from LSU. He announced for Alabama on Aug. 24 and may prove to be the first domino to fall that leads a talented group out of the Pelican State and to Tuscaloosa instead. Robinson, a friend and former teammate of Sims, was not far behind.

Who's next? LSU fans certainly hope it isn't this guy.

Waiting on my dude can Robinson might know where he might land at
— LeonardFournette (@_fournette) September 4, 2013

Leonard Fournette (6-1, 225, New Orleans, La./St. Augustine) is the top-ranked running back in the country, and a player almost universally thought of as the best to come out of the high school ranks at his position since Adrian Peterson. Wouldn't a top-rated running back want to follow the top-ranked offensive lineman to the same school? It makes sense. LSU didn't take a running back at all in 2013 in an effort to secure Fournette. Alabama, meanwhile, is loaded to the gills with Rivals 100 prospects at the position. (This all goes back to the notion it's better to go ahead and use every scholarship in every class instead of worrying what juniors another year down the line are thinking, but that's another post for another day.)

Despite LSU's best efforts, Alabama is now a serious contender for Fournette, who is either ranked as the No. 1 or No. 2 prospect in the country by each of the four major recruiting services (ESPN, Rivals, Scout and 247.)

It should also be added that Laurence "Hootie" Jones (6-2, 210, Monroe, La./Neville) was also at the commitment ceremony for Robinson. Ranked as a consensus top-25 player in the country, he too could follow Robinson to Alabama, as the big fella has made it clear he's going to actively work to recruit his fellow Louisianans to the Crimson Tide.

Then, if all that weren't enough, two other in-state prospects decided to fire off a couple of tweets to really send LSU fans over the edge:

My real top 3 #FLORIDA #A&M #USC it's gonna be a hard choice 😩
— G.E.E (@geee_90) September 4, 2013

Me and my dude @geee_90 plan on going to the same college #U #A #F
— I am Speedy Noil (@SpeedyNoil) September 4, 2013

Top-100 teammates Gerald Willis (DT, 6-3, 275) and Speedy Noil (WR, 5-11, 180) of Edna Karr in New Orleans now claim a "top three" of Florida, Texas A&M and USC. We'll see how much legitimacy there is to those tweets in the coming weeks. However, the Gators will have a crack at these guys on Sept. 21 when Florida plays host to Tennessee in the SEC opener for both squads. The two also plan to officially visit College Station for the big showdown Alabama contest on Sept. 14. The door appears to be at least cracked in terms of a pair of fellow SEC powers getting in the mix for two prospects long thought to be headed to LSU.

None of these verbal commitments are binding and there is still five months to go until National Signing Day. Is it time for Les Miles to hit the panic button? Well, maybe not quite yet, but that moment is fast approaching. The Tigers have to regroup and find a way to get back in it with Robinson, and stem the momentum from heading the other way with Fournette, Jones and others. Otherwise, the most talented in-state crop of Louisiana players in at least a generation will be finding ways to beat the Tigers for the next few seasons, instead of suiting up to win championships for them in Baton Rouge.

John Brantley, and why he's (kinda sorta) to blame for Texas not offering Jameis Winston

There's been considerable discussion in the media since Monday night when Florida State redshirt quarterback Jameis Winston, fresh off perhaps the most impressive debut by a quarterback in college football history, dropped the bomb in post-game interviews that he had originally wanted to attend Texas. Had Mack Brown and the Longhorns offered the gifted two-sport athlete out of Hueytown, Ala., he would likely be suiting up for both Mack Brown and Augie Garrido in Austin right now, as opposed to being a weapon for Jimbo Fisher and Mike Martin's squads in Tallahassee.

Jameis Winston wanted to go to Texas but was never offered: "Dang, I'm good enough for Alabama & Auburn but not good enough for Texas"
— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) September 3, 2013

Jameis Winston: "I'm an OU fan but I always wanted to go to Texas. If I'd gotten offer from Texas I'd be going to Texas right now"
— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) September 3, 2013

It should be pointed out, however, that there is probably a bit of revisionist history here. It's easy for an athlete to say "well, I wanted to go to ________ University, but they didn't offer/show much interest in me," after the fact. Had Texas offered and recruited Winston, perhaps they would have landed him, maybe they wouldn't have. There's so many things that can go right or wrong when a team pursues a player, that we don't know if a team could or would have signed a given prospect unless they actually go after him. That clearly didn't happen in this instance. It becomes a hypothetical situation for which we will never know the answer to.

Of course, this revelation plays right into the "Mack Brown is losing touch" storyline that sportswriters have been harping on in recent years. Winston is just the latest dynamic, dual-threat quarterback that the Longhorns missed on. Before him, Texas decided to recruit Heisman Trophy-winning signal-callers Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel to play safety. Oops.

But the "miss" of Winston by the University of Texas staff can likely be tied to a pair of players who left the Longhorns at the altar several years before, and caused Mack Brown to alter his approach to the way he recruited top-shelf quarterback prospects moving forward.

Texas missed on a pair of highly-rated gunslingers in quick succession back in the mid-aughts. Ryan Perriloux (2005) and John Brantley (2007) were top-50 prospects from Louisiana and Florida, respectively. Both got caught up in the (sometimes) high-pressure tactics Mack Brown employs on in-state prospects to great success. Each player made an early commitment to the Longhorns. However, Perriloux was in a region known as a traditional LSU stronghold for recruiting. Likewise for Brantley, who was also a well-known UF legacy. Both ended up flipping relatively late in the process, despite LSU going through a transition from Nick Saban to Les Miles, and Urban Meyer already having a top QB prospect committed to the Gators in future No. 1-overall draft pick Cam Newton. Obviously, those losses on the recruiting trail stung Mack Brown – a man not used to losing much for prospects he really wanted – right to his core.

In an effort to prevent that from happening in the future, Texas started instituting a new policy on out-of-state recruits. With few exceptions, those players didn't get offers until they made a visit to Austin on their own dime. Winston would have fallen under that policy, since he hails from Alabama, and the Crimson Tide has done an excellent job locking down the state for players they really wanted in recent years.

On one hand, that idea does make sense, as it is a great way to test the interest of a prospect. But once again, it can also limit the size of the net the program casts on potential prospects. The philosophy gives less margin for error. Plus, top high school players often employ the same tactic. They won't visit a school using their money until the program extends an offer. The potential stalemate likely killed any chance the Longhorns had of recruiting Winston.

It should also be noted that Bryan Harsin, who had been recently hired from Boise State to become the new offensive coordinator at Texas, hand-picked Connor Brewer out of Arizona to be his quarterback in the Class of 2012. Brewer committed on Feb. 7, 2011 and enrolled the following January at UT. With Harsin now the head coach at Arkansas State, Brewer has since transferred back home to play at the University of Arizona.

Recruiting is ultimately a crapshoot. Mack Brown really shouldn't be blamed for failing to sign any of the three QB's individually. And it should be noted that the oversight of Winston is much different than Griffin and Manziel. The latter two were Texas natives playing at a time when the Longhorns had their pick of almost any player in a state (which is no longer the case, with the recent emergence of A&M.) Winston hails from Alabama – not exactly a recruiting hotbed over the years for the UT. There's also an element of luck involved in the game of recruiting. But as Ernest Hemingway once said, "you make your own luck." With Texas now on the decline, and a trio of potential star UT quarterbacks playing or having played somewhere other than Austin over the past five years, the whispers around Brown's future will only continue to get louder.