Muschamp and Texas: The speculation begins

We all knew it was coming. It was only a matter of time. Chip Brown, the Texas beat reporter from Rivals affiliate Orangebloods.com finally put it into verbal form for a national audience this afternoon when he went on the Paul Finebaum Radio Network:

Chip Brown tells us potential Texas candidates if Mack Brown steps down: Will Muschamp, Gary Patterson, Charlie Strong, Kirby Smart...
— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) September 16, 2013

[Let me also add three other coaches I think Texas will take a look at. 1. Nick Saban (how can Texas not at least give him a call?) 2. Pat Fitzgerald (a true up-and-comer in the profession with ties to the state of Texas, but will he leave what he's building at his alma mater?) and 3. Hugh Freeze (would be worth a look, considering what he just did to the Longhorns over the weekend)]

I know I've already discussed the topic of Muschamp and Texas with friends. To a certain extent, the subject has been tossed around ever since Muschamp was hired by Florida. Fans knew Mack Brown wasn't going to hang around forever. What happens when the venerable UT coach decides to throw in the towel? Well, it appears that decision is about to be made for him.

So, will Will Muschamp listen to DeLoss Dodds? Or I guess I should say whoever takes over as AD for Dodds (assuming the reports he will step down at the end of the year are true, of course.)

I'm inclined to believe "yes." Why wouldn't Muschamp listen to Texas? They can offer more money, more resources and better facilities than just about any program in the country (including Florida.) Sure, UF is one of just a handful of "destination jobs" out there. At the very least, Muschamp has a little extra leverage in his pocket to bring to the table when talking about the budget for facilities, assistants, recruiting, etc. going into the offseason. At the very worst, Muschamp is already dealing with an impatient fanbase who feels he should be winning national championships right now instead of losing to Miami. This, despite the fact he's only into Year Three of the clean-up from the mess Urban Meyer left behind. Considering a potential offer from Texas isn't as absurd as anyone might think.

In the end, if it were to come to this, Muschamp's decision will likely come down to a few factors:

1. How does Florida finish out this season? 9-3 or better would keep Muschamp right about on track from where he was heading into the season, considering this is a young team. Better days are ahead. If the heat is off of him from the fanbase, and he's poised to potentially compete for an SEC Championship (and subsequently, a National Championship, as the two go hand-in-hand these days) in 2014, why leave? 8-4 would be a middle ground. 7-5 or worse might have him ready to move on. But then, of course, that would lead one to wonder if that type of finish could hurt Muschamp's stock enough to force Texas to look elsewhere for a head coach? All reasonable questions, which makes how the rest of this season plays out a key here.

2. What's the relationship like between Muschamp and Foley? Being happy in the workplace is always a key. Assuming their bond is still tight (Muschamp was Foley's hand-picked guy, after all), this will be hard for Texas to top. Remember, the Longhorns have an athletic director that seems to be in tenuous standing as well.

3. Is the appeal in Austin that much greater? I don't think there's much argument that Austin, in itself, is generally considered a better place to live than Gainesville. But that's a broad generalization which doesn't take into account every unique situation. The Muschamps were reportedly very happy living in Texas. But is it that much of an improvement over being closer to home (both Muschamp and his wife are Georgia natives, remember) and family? That's a factor we really can't answer.

But for Muschamp, it's really going to come down to his comfort level. If both he and his family are happy in Gainesville and still he's still please with the direction of the program, I'm just not sure Texas would ever be able to swoop in and take him. However, if those factors change, and Florida's somewhat rocky start to the fall continues, perhaps a clean slate will interest him. In any case, it's certainly a situation that will bear watching as the season continues to play out.

John Brantley, and why he's (kinda sorta) to blame for Texas not offering Jameis Winston

There's been considerable discussion in the media since Monday night when Florida State redshirt quarterback Jameis Winston, fresh off perhaps the most impressive debut by a quarterback in college football history, dropped the bomb in post-game interviews that he had originally wanted to attend Texas. Had Mack Brown and the Longhorns offered the gifted two-sport athlete out of Hueytown, Ala., he would likely be suiting up for both Mack Brown and Augie Garrido in Austin right now, as opposed to being a weapon for Jimbo Fisher and Mike Martin's squads in Tallahassee.

Jameis Winston wanted to go to Texas but was never offered: "Dang, I'm good enough for Alabama & Auburn but not good enough for Texas"
— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) September 3, 2013

Jameis Winston: "I'm an OU fan but I always wanted to go to Texas. If I'd gotten offer from Texas I'd be going to Texas right now"
— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) September 3, 2013

It should be pointed out, however, that there is probably a bit of revisionist history here. It's easy for an athlete to say "well, I wanted to go to ________ University, but they didn't offer/show much interest in me," after the fact. Had Texas offered and recruited Winston, perhaps they would have landed him, maybe they wouldn't have. There's so many things that can go right or wrong when a team pursues a player, that we don't know if a team could or would have signed a given prospect unless they actually go after him. That clearly didn't happen in this instance. It becomes a hypothetical situation for which we will never know the answer to.

Of course, this revelation plays right into the "Mack Brown is losing touch" storyline that sportswriters have been harping on in recent years. Winston is just the latest dynamic, dual-threat quarterback that the Longhorns missed on. Before him, Texas decided to recruit Heisman Trophy-winning signal-callers Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel to play safety. Oops.

But the "miss" of Winston by the University of Texas staff can likely be tied to a pair of players who left the Longhorns at the altar several years before, and caused Mack Brown to alter his approach to the way he recruited top-shelf quarterback prospects moving forward.

Texas missed on a pair of highly-rated gunslingers in quick succession back in the mid-aughts. Ryan Perriloux (2005) and John Brantley (2007) were top-50 prospects from Louisiana and Florida, respectively. Both got caught up in the (sometimes) high-pressure tactics Mack Brown employs on in-state prospects to great success. Each player made an early commitment to the Longhorns. However, Perriloux was in a region known as a traditional LSU stronghold for recruiting. Likewise for Brantley, who was also a well-known UF legacy. Both ended up flipping relatively late in the process, despite LSU going through a transition from Nick Saban to Les Miles, and Urban Meyer already having a top QB prospect committed to the Gators in future No. 1-overall draft pick Cam Newton. Obviously, those losses on the recruiting trail stung Mack Brown – a man not used to losing much for prospects he really wanted – right to his core.

In an effort to prevent that from happening in the future, Texas started instituting a new policy on out-of-state recruits. With few exceptions, those players didn't get offers until they made a visit to Austin on their own dime. Winston would have fallen under that policy, since he hails from Alabama, and the Crimson Tide has done an excellent job locking down the state for players they really wanted in recent years.

On one hand, that idea does make sense, as it is a great way to test the interest of a prospect. But once again, it can also limit the size of the net the program casts on potential prospects. The philosophy gives less margin for error. Plus, top high school players often employ the same tactic. They won't visit a school using their money until the program extends an offer. The potential stalemate likely killed any chance the Longhorns had of recruiting Winston.

It should also be noted that Bryan Harsin, who had been recently hired from Boise State to become the new offensive coordinator at Texas, hand-picked Connor Brewer out of Arizona to be his quarterback in the Class of 2012. Brewer committed on Feb. 7, 2011 and enrolled the following January at UT. With Harsin now the head coach at Arkansas State, Brewer has since transferred back home to play at the University of Arizona.

Recruiting is ultimately a crapshoot. Mack Brown really shouldn't be blamed for failing to sign any of the three QB's individually. And it should be noted that the oversight of Winston is much different than Griffin and Manziel. The latter two were Texas natives playing at a time when the Longhorns had their pick of almost any player in a state (which is no longer the case, with the recent emergence of A&M.) Winston hails from Alabama – not exactly a recruiting hotbed over the years for the UT. There's also an element of luck involved in the game of recruiting. But as Ernest Hemingway once said, "you make your own luck." With Texas now on the decline, and a trio of potential star UT quarterbacks playing or having played somewhere other than Austin over the past five years, the whispers around Brown's future will only continue to get louder.

Jamarkus McFarland

The name of former Oklahoma defensive tackle Jamarkus McFarland showed up on the waiver wire today, a casualty of cut-down day as the San Diego Chargers looked to get down under 75 this afternoon on the way to the eventual 53-man roster limit in a few days. McFarland is one of hundreds of players who will be without a team after today. In that sense, his story is not particularly page-turning. But unlike nearly all the other players released from active rosters in the NFL today, McFarland was the center of a hotly-contested battle between the Sooners, Texas and a host of other schools that eventually led to a lengthy New York Times profile that detailed some of the slimier aspects of his recruitment.

Knowing what they know now, I wonder if Bob Stoops and Mack Brown still think McFarland was worth all the effort?

In 47 career games (23 starts) for Oklahoma, McFarland recorded 80 tackles (17.0 for loss), 7.5 sacks, three passes defended and an interception. Solid numbers, no doubt. But certainly a bit of a disappointment for an Army All-American who touched off one of the more memorable tussles on the recruiting trail for the Class of 2009.

Now, McFarland is just one of many young athletes who will have to now consider a future without football. It's only notable, because it's a reminder that as we get caught up in the hoopla over stars, All-America bids and recruiting rankings, we really don't have a crystal ball in front of us. There's no telling how these guys will develop, how they will respond to potential adversity and how they will adjust to moving up a level in competition.

In other words, for all the projections and prognostications, we really have no bleepin' clue what any of these kids are going to do once they move on to college. As I read a lengthy (but good) piece on five-star defensive lineman Da'Shawn Hand by the Washington Post today, I can't help but wonder whether his college career arc will be closer to Clowney, or that of McFarland. We can debate it all day, but the fact of the matter is we really have no idea.